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In the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey, the National Association of REALTORS® asks members “In the neighborhood or area where you make most of your sales, what are your expectations for residential property prices over the next year?”
Among REALTORS® who responded to the April 2017 survey, the median expected home price change in the next 12 months was 4.2 percent (4.0 percent in March 2017; 3.8 percent in April 2016). [1] Lack of supply amid strong demand has continued to push up home prices, based on the April 2017 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey Report. [2]
The map below shows the median expected price change of the respondents in the next 12 months at the state level.[3] In 10 West states, led by Washington, Utah, and Colorado, the median expected price growth is in the range of five to seven percent. The oil-producing states have the lowest median expected price change in the next 12 months at two to three percent.
Looking at the values over time in selected states, the median expected price change appears to be increasing again, indicating that respondents expect demand to remain strong, even as home prices continue to rise.[4] In 39 states, the expected price change in the next 12 months is higher than the expected price change one year ago.
[1] The median expected price change is a measure that represents the middle value of the distribution of responses.
[2] To increase the number of observations for each state, the index is based on data for the last three months. Small states such as AK, ND, SD, MT, VT, WY, WV, DE, and D.C., may have fewer than 30 observations. Respondents rated conditions or expectations as “Strong (100),” “Moderate (50),” and “Weak (0).” NAR compiles the responses into a diffusion index. A diffusion index greater than 50 means that more respondents rated conditions as “Strong” than “Weak.” For graphical purposes, index values 25 and lower are labeled “Very Weak,” values greater than 25 to 45 are labeled “Weak,” values greater than 45 to 55 are labeled “Moderate,” values greater than 55 to 75 are labeled “Strong,” and values greater than 75 are labeled “Very Strong.” The range of +/-5 around 50 approximates the historical margins of error at the 95 percent confidence level for small states.
[3] To increase the number of observations for each state, NAR uses data from the last three surveys.
[4] The selected states shown in these charts are those with approximately 150 observations.
