June 2019: Existing-Home Sales Over 10 Years

Every month NAR produces existing-home sales, median sales prices, and inventory figures. The reporting of this data is always based on homes sold the previous month and the data is explained in comparison to the same month a year ago. This analysis also provides a perspective of the market relative to last month, adjusting for seasonal factors, and comments on the potential direction of the housing market.

The data below shows what the current months’ data looks like in comparison to the last 10 June months and how that might compare to the “ten year June average,” which is an average of the data from the past 10 June months. The data also shows comparisons from June 2009 compared to 2019.

• Comparing June of 2009 to June 2019, the median price of a home increased in the US and all the four regions. The West led all regions with a gain of 87.7% followed by the South with 52.3%. The US had an incline in price of 57.2% while the Midwest experienced a gain of 47.7%. The Northeast had the smallest gain in price of 29.9%.

• The median price year over year percentage change shows that home prices were down in 2009 because of the bubble nationally, for the US and all four regions with the West having the biggest dip falling 23.6%. Home prices in the US were down 15.5% followed by the South with a dip in price of 12.1%. The Midwest had a decline of 9.6% and the Northeast had the smallest decline of 6.9%.  The trend for median home prices turned in 2013, when all regions showed price gains, the West having the biggest gain of 19.4%. Price growth has remained strong across the US and the four regions for the last 6 June months. This June the Midwest (6.7%) had the highest year over year price change compared to the US (4.3%) the South (4.9%) the West (2.3%) the Northeast (4.8%).

• The decrease in inventory over the last 10 June months has been very noticeable. Comparing inventory figures from 2009 to 2019, inventories across the US fell and are down 40.1%. Single-family inventory is down 36.9%, and condominiums have fallen significantly at 56.1%. From 2011 to 2012, inventories had their biggest dip in both single-family and condominiums with condominiums having the bigger decline of 30.0%. US overall inventory had a decline of 25% while single-family fell 24.5%. Inventory figures over the ten-year period have declined substantially, having the only increases in 2014. Inventories continued to decline in 2015 through 2018. Inventories nationally were flat in June; they declined 0.6% for single-family, but were up 5.7% for condominiums.

• This past June, homes sold in the US had a fast pace relative to the inventory level when months’ supply was 4.4 months. In 2009, the US had the slowest relative pace, when it would have taken 9.4 months to sell the supply of homes on the market at the prevailing sales pace. This was also the case for the condominium market, which had the biggest challenge: it would have taken 13.8 months, and single-family 8.9 months, to sell all available inventory at the prevailing sales pace.

• The ten-year June average national months’ supply is 6.1, while single family is 6.0 and the condominium average is a 6.6 months’ supply.
• The total number of homes sold in the US for June 2019 is higher than the ten year June average. Regionally, three of the four regions were above the ten-year June average, while the West was below. The South also lead sales over this ten-year period while the Northeast remained the region with the slowest sales pace.

• Comparing June of 2009 to June of 2019, more homes sold in 2018 in the US and all regions, ­­except the West, which was flat. The US had an increase of 28.5% while the Midwest had an uptick in sales at 38.9%. The South led all regions with a gain of 46.1%. The Northeast region had the smallest gain of 19.3%.

• This past June existing-home sales reached the 5.27 million mark. Despite the year over year declines, the last 5 June months have been above the 5 million mark, which is considered healthy housing market activity compared to the levels during the 2009-2012 period.

• June median family incomes had continued to rise over the ten-year period and have risen to $78,916 this June. Incomes are currently up 28.6% from June 2009 to June 2019. This growth is about half of the 57.2% price appreciation during the same period, making a home purchase less affordable in terms of the required down payment although mortgage payments are affordable due to low interest rates.

• June mortgage rates have dropped favorably over the last 10 June months. In 2009, rates had risen to 5.16% and fell to the lowest in 2013 at 3.67%. The ten-year average mortgage rate has been 4.29 % and the rates are down 25.6% from 10 June months.