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Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

Economic Indicators: Weekly Update for April 8

April 8, 2011
Financing & Credit
By: Meredith Dunn

Every week the Research staff analyzes key data releases and explain what they mean for you and your business. In this update, we give the highlights of the most important data releases for the week of April 4-April 8, 2011, along with graphs that show the latest movement and overall trends.

wfu040811a
At a glance, this table shows the forecast for some of the most pertinent weekly data for REALTORS® to keep in mind. This changes from week to week as new data becomes available. The directional shift notes the trend from last week’s numbers. For the full forecast from the latest Pending Home Sales release, click here (PDF).

Highlights for Monday, April 04, 2011

  • wfu040811b
    The interest rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has remained relatively flat over the last month and is currently 4.96%.
  • The average annual inflation expectation in the U.S. over the next ten years also remained flat, and is currently 2.48%.
  • NAR is forecasting interest rates to increase to 5.6% by the end of 2011.

Highlights for Tuesday, April 5, 2011

  • wfu040811c
    The ISM Non-Manufacturing index fell from 59.7% in February to 57.3% in March.
  • According to survey respondents, both the real estate and rental and leasing industries showed growth in March.  In addition, one respondent noted an improvement in business conditions for construction and “an increase in qualified customers.”

Highlights for Wednesday, April 6, 2011

  • wfu040811d
    Mortgage applications fell 2.0 percent for the week ending April 1st, on the heels of interest rate increases.
  • Purchase applications were up 6.7 percent from the prior week and down 16.8 percent compared with a year ago.
  • The weekly data does not account for the rising number of cash buyers.  According to the March REALTORS® Confidence Index, cash buyers accounted for 35 percent of transactions.

Highlights for Thursday, April 07, 2011

  • wfu040811e
    New jobless claims continue moving down with 382,000 initial claims reported last week, down from the revised 388,000.
  • Assuming that jobless claims continue to trend down, NAR expects about 1.5 to 2 million net new jobs in the next 12 months.

Friday, April 08, 2011

  • wfu040811f
    While revolving consumer credit has continued to contract 28 of the last 29 months, non-revolving credit has continued its 7 month increase.  The current outstanding consumer credit amount is $2.42 trillion.
  • Revolving credit, such as credit cards,  declined in February $2.7 billion.
  • Non-revolving credit, such as credit for cars, durable goods, and vacations, increased $10.3 billion in February, which is mostly accredited to new vehicle sales.
Notice: The information on this page may not be current. The archive is a collection of content previously published on one or more NAR web properties. Archive pages are not updated and may no longer be accurate. Users must independently verify the accuracy and currency of the information found here. The National Association of REALTORS® disclaims all liability for any loss or injury resulting from the use of the information or data found on this page.
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