More Than 80% of Metro Areas Registered Home Price Increases in Third Quarter of 2023

WASHINGTON (November 9, 2023) – More than 80% of metro markets (182 out of 221) posted home price gains in the third quarter of 2023 as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate ranged from 6.81% to 7.31%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®' latest quarterly report. Eleven percent of the 221 tracked metro areas registered double-digit price increases over the same period, up from 5% in the second quarter.

"Homeowners have accumulated sizable wealth, with a typical homeowner gaining more than $100,000 in overall net worth since 2019 and before the height of the pandemic," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "However, the persistent lack of available homes on the market will make the dream of homeownership increasingly difficult for younger adults unless housing supply is significantly boosted."

Compared to a year ago, the national median single-family existing-home price climbed 2.2% to $406,900. In the previous quarter, the year-over-year national median price declined 2.4%.

Among the major U.S. regions, the South saw the largest share of single-family existing-home sales (46%) in the third quarter, with year-over-year price appreciation of 1.7%. Prices also grew 5.3% in the Northeast, 5.2% in the Midwest and 0.6% in the West.[i]

Year-over-year prices in the third quarter retreated by 10.3% in Austin, 1.5% in Phoenix, 1.2% in Salt Lake City and 1.1% in both Dallas and Houston. However, prices rose by 9.6% in San Jose, 8.7% in both Anaheim and San Diego, 6.6% in Boston and 5.7% in Miami.

"Following the big price changes during the last several years, it's natural to witness momentary swings in prices," Yun said. "Some markets that experienced sizable home price gains since 2020 have turned lower, resulting in temporary relief for prospective home buyers. Also, a few markets in the West that experienced price declines in the prior quarter have seen prices rise again."

The top 10 metro areas with the largest year-over-year price increases all recorded gains of at least 12.6%, with six of those markets in the Midwest. Those include Fond du Lac, Wis. (18.9%); Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, N.C. (17.1%); Oshkosh-Neenah, Wis. (15.2%); Green Bay, Wis. (14.8%); Reading, Pa. (14.7%); Newark, N.J.-Pa. (14.3%); Dayton, Ohio (13.7%); Fort Wayne, Ind. (12.9%); Farmington, N.M. (12.7%); and Kankakee, Ill. (12.6%).

Eight of the top 10 most expensive markets in the U.S. were in California. Overall, those markets are San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. ($1,850,000; 9.6%); Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, Calif. ($1,305,000; 8.7%); San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif. ($1,300,000; 1.6%); Urban Honolulu, Hawaii ($1,061,900; -5.8%); San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif. ($978,500; 8.7%); Salinas, Calif. ($945,300; 5.3%); Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif. ($921,500; 3.8%); Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif. ($897,600; 1.4%); San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, Calif. ($889,900; 1.7%); and Boulder, Colo. ($857,800; 3.7%).

"With consumer inflation becoming more manageable, the Federal Reserve needs to consider cutting interest rates," Yun added. "In turn, Congress must consider incentives to boost housing supply and inventory so that more Americans can participate in wealth accumulation. The housing market shouldn't be accessible only to those who are paying in cash nor become a playground for the wealthy."

Less than one-fifth of markets (17%; 38 of 221) experienced home price declines in the third quarter, down from 41% in the second quarter.

Housing affordability worsened in the third quarter because of increasing home prices and mortgage rates. The monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $2,192, up 7% from the second quarter ($2,051) and 19.2% – or $354 – from one year ago. Families typically spent 26.8% of their income on mortgage payments, up from 25.3% in the prior quarter and 23.5% one year ago.

Lack of inventory and affordability continued to impact first-time buyers during the third quarter. For a typical starter home valued at $345,900 with a 10% down payment loan, the monthly mortgage payment rose to $2,149, up 6.9% from the previous quarter ($2,011). That was an increase of $343, or 19%, from one year ago ($1,806). First-time buyers typically spent 40.4% of their family income on mortgage payments, up from 38.2% in the prior quarter.

A family needed a qualifying income of at least $100,000 to afford a 10% down payment mortgage in 45.7% of markets, up from 40.3% in the prior quarter. Yet, a family needed a qualifying income of less than $50,000 to afford a home in 2.7% of markets, down from 6.3% in the previous quarter.

About the National Association of REALTORS®

The National Association of REALTORS® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

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Data tables for MSA home prices (single-family and condo) are posted at https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/metropolitan-median-area-prices-and-affordability. If insufficient data is reported for an MSA in a particular quarter, it is listed as N/A. For areas not covered in the tables, please contact the local association of REALTORS®.

NOTE: NAR releases quarterly median single-family price data for approximately 185 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). In some cases, the MSA prices may not coincide with data released by state and local REALTOR® associations. Any discrepancy may be due to differences in geographic coverage, product mix, and timing. In the event of discrepancies, REALTORS® are advised that for business purposes, local data from their association may be more relevant.

¹ Areas are generally metropolitan statistical areas as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. NAR adheres to the OMB definitions, although in some areas an exact match is not possible from the available data. A list of counties included in MSA definitions is available at: https://www.census.gov/geographies/reference-files/time-series/demo/metro-micro/delineation-files.html.

Regional median home prices are from a separate sampling that includes rural areas and portions of some smaller metros that are not included in this report; the regional percentage changes do not necessarily parallel changes in the larger metro areas. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Quarter-to-quarter comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns.

Median price measurement reflects the types of homes that are selling during the quarter and can be skewed at times by changes in the sales mix. For example, changes in the level of distressed sales, which are heavily discounted, can vary notably in given markets and may affect percentage comparisons. Annual price measures generally smooth out any quarterly swings.

NAR began tracking of metropolitan area median single-family home prices in 1979; the metro area condo price series dates back to 1989.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate for a particular quarter represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative sales pace for that quarter was maintained for four consecutive quarters. Total home sales include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-operative housing.